The Data Shows Political Violence Is Actually Down

People gather before marching in memory of Charlie Kirk in Peoria Ariz on Sept Photo Charly Triballeau AFP via Getty Images It would be easy to believe America is tipping into an era of rampant political bloodshed In the wake of Charlie Kirk s assassination voices from across the spectrum sounded alarms that the shooting was just the latest flashpoint in a rising tide of violence Progressive commentator Hasan Piker shaken after watching video of Kirk s murder warned his audience of people looking for decentralized forms of violence A Reuters analysis was even more blunt declaring Kirk s killing a watershed moment in a surge of U S political violence Even Utah s Republican governor mused whether this marked the beginning of a darker chapter in our history These aren t the first calls for open strife When Donald Trump himself was shot last year a few right-wing figures rushed to declare it the opening salvo of a new civil war Are we on the brink of another s-style season of political assassinations and unrest A funny thing is happening beneath the apocalyptic headlines Rather than surging key indicators of political violence and extremism in the U S have really been trending downward in contemporary months New findings from the Armed Conflict Location Event Statistics Project or ACLED show that protest and extremist activity has dropped significantly nationwide In August the number of population demonstrations in the U S plummeted by nearly percent compared to the month before A much-hyped progressive day of action called Rage Against the Regime fizzled with only modest turnouts contributing to the sharp decline in protests And perhaps largest part tellingly organized extremist incidents rallies hate marches militant group meet-ups fell off a cliff ACLED reports that extremist group activity dropped by over one-third in August hitting its lowest level in more than five years It s part of a steady decline in far-right mobilization that dates back to In other words according to ACLED by the time commentators were warning that Kirk s murder heralded a new wave of violence extremist activism on the ground was at a multiyear low Five-Year Low The contrast between the panic-stricken narrative and ACLED s hard numbers is striking Yes politically motivated attacks still occur and can be horrific Yet the broader trend in extremist mobilization suggests less organized violence not more ACLED s data-driven analysis notes multiple factors behind the slump There are possibly more clandestine tactics by groups Leadership failures could account for a lack of organization And a big one There is a loss of urgency among extremist followers because they see their views reflected in mainstream politics It turns out that when your side is already winning you don t need to storm the barricades Even Princeton s Bridging Divides Initiative which closely monitors political violence across the country acknowledges that incidents remained relatively low in Their analysis grounded in real-time event tracking confirms that while we ve seen marked upticks in threats in recent weeks the overall trend in political violence has declined since the peak years around Related Charlie Kirk s Assassination Is Part of a Trend Spiking Gun Violence in Red States The Southern Poverty Law Center or SPLC observed the same phenomenon in its latest Year in Hate and Extremism description The SPLC counted functioning hate and extremist groups in down from in The group concluded the slight drop does not signify declining influence at all Rather it s because various on the far right feel their beliefs have become normalized in executive and mainstream society according to the assessment In plain English Why organize a fringe militia when your agenda is being adopted on Capitol Hill and made into plan by the White House This dynamic helps explain why the immediate wake of Kirk s assassination hasn t unleashed the spate of tit-for-tat violence specific feared Why organize a fringe militia when your agenda is being adopted on Capitol Hill The far-right ecosystem which in years past might have exploded with vengeful rallies or vigilante reprisals has been relatively muted in terms of on-the-ground action To be sure there was plenty of online fury and calls for crackdowns Offline organized extremist events though remain in a lull The shock and outrage did not translate into a Proud Boys revival or a new wave of militias taking to the streets Ability on the left meanwhile is already flagging Its protest movements have been quieter than expected during Trump s second term Progressives pulled off several days of action earlier in the year but by late summer the protests were losing steam The vigor that fueled huge anti-Trump demonstrations in ebbed reflected in the percent drop in protest activity At least for now both sides of the spectrum are mobilizing less in the streets albeit for very different reasons An Advancing Agenda All of this leads to an ironic possibility Political violence may be declining largely because the would-be perpetrators feel they don t need it anymore The American far right once relegated to the fringe now sees its formerly extremist ideas being enacted through mainstream institutions As the SPLC review noted positions that might have once only been pushed via hate rallies anti-LGBTQ hostility attacks on woke mentoring dismantling diversity programs have seeped into bill and school board policies In militant groups harassed diversity and inclusion efforts and soon after Republican lawmakers egged on by Trump moved to ban discussion of race and gender in classrooms After Kirk s killing White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller went on Kirk s podcast to vow revenge on left-wing groups Vice President JD Vance for his part broadcasted his intent to attack two of the top liberal foundations and a historic magazine of the left Guns and intimidation aren t necessary The decline in violent extremism is welcome but the apparent reasons behind it should give us pause What does it say about the state of the country when extremists stand down not because they ve been defeated but because they think they ve won It suggests that the battleground has shifted The fights that once took place at the margins in backwoods compounds or tense street protests are now unfolding in courtrooms statehouses and school boards Related Nothing Will Stop Trump From Weaponizing Charlie Kirk s Killing to Attack the Left Liberals know it too The relative quiet on the left could well be a sign of resignation as if even the opposition recognizes that the hard right s agenda has the upper hand America may be a very very dangerous spot as one expert explained Reuters but not for the reasons cable news would have us believe The danger isn t an impending civil war in the streets it s a creeping normalization of hard-line political goals that no longer require mob violence to be realized The assassins and agitators are stepping back confident that the system now carries their torch for them The danger isn t an impending civil war in the streets it s a creeping normalization of hard-line political goals Still Kirk s assassination cannot be brushed aside For all the evidence that political violence has ebbed singular events can act as catalysts jolting extremists out of dormancy This killing could become a ramp toward a new future of violence If history is any guide however it won t be in the form of clashes The ceiling and appetite for that kind of confrontation seems to have dwindled In contemporary times s great danger likely isn t open war in the streets but the quiet march of an extremist agenda already advancing through institutions That may bring with it an even greater violence The post The Statistics Shows Political Violence Is Indeed Down appeared first on The Intercept